IOS & Android Global Rakamlar

Kaboom! iOS and Android International Installed Base Expansion

Posted by Peter Farago on Fri, Dec 23, 2011

Because this chart measures future potential, TAMs are much larger relative to active user bases.  The result, visually, is a lot more “light blue.”  Many of the world’s largest countries have largely un-penetrated markets, primarily due to standards of living (emerging markets) or increased competition for consumers’ disposable income (developed markets).  In either case, the TAM is there, but the adoption hasn’t yet occurred.  So, many of these markets are future bets with the time of maturity somewhat variable and unknown.  In this chart, the U.S. has both the largest current installed base and market upside.  Again, this is because of its unique, well-penetrated and large, affluent population.  Next China, given its very large population (1.3 billion), along with a growing middle class who has already begun adopting smart devices, has the world’s second largest market potential.  In comparison, even though India has the world’s second largest population (1.2 billion), its TAM is much smaller than China’s because of India’s very low standard of living.  The result is that, even though its total population is not far behind China’s, its total addressable market is.  Further, the adoption of smartphones and tablets among its TAM has been small.  Finally, Japan, the world’s fourth largest market, has a lot of upside given light penetration of iOS and Anroid devices against its large, addressable market.

iOS and Android sales boomed in 2011, with international smartphone and tablet adoption accelerating.  As we look forward to 2012 and beyond, we expect the trend of international expansion to continue.  With the world’s estimated middle class now totaling 1.8 billion, there remains a lot of unconquered territory for Apple and Google, who currently lead the charge in driving smart device adoption.  This is equally good news for developers, who build apps for these platforms, and directly benefit from their installed base growth.

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